Senin, 21 Maret 2011

Download Tastes & Treasures: A Storytelling Cookbook of Historic Arizona

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Tastes & Treasures: A Storytelling Cookbook of Historic Arizona

Tastes & Treasures: A Storytelling Cookbook of Historic Arizona


Tastes & Treasures: A Storytelling Cookbook of Historic Arizona


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Tastes & Treasures: A Storytelling Cookbook of Historic Arizona

Review

When I originally reviewed a copy of Tastes and Treasures as it came off press I said, These ladies understand the meaning of a community cookbook. Most people we deal with misunderstand the relevance of associating historical information through the subject of food. Tastes and Treasures is the best example of a true community cookbook that I have been associated with since the inception of the current Favorite Recipes Press model. Your book is truly wonderful and it is THE sample reference I use 100% of the time to illustrate what the content of a community cookbook should be. --Dave Kempf, President FRP Favorite Recipes Press, Nashville, TN June 2008Taste History - Tour Historic Arizona from your kitchen table with savory recipes and colorful stories gathered from Arizona s longest-standing establishments. Through the pages of Tastes and Treasures A Storytelling Cookbook of Historic Arizona you can learn to make El Chorro s famous sticky buns and signature dishes from other historic Arizona Eateries. The cookbook, which is produced by the Historical League, includes family recipes from Arizona Historymakers from Barry Goldwater to Erma Bombeck. Proceeds support the Arizona Historical Society Museum at Papago Park. Visit HistoricalLeague.com --Arizona AAA Highroads Magazine May/June 2007Tastes and Treasures A Storytelling Cookbook of Historic Arizona is produced by Historic League, Inc, a non-profit fundraising arm of the Arizona Historical Society Museum.Tastes and Treasures is an intriguing journey through Arizona history, based on the cuisine served in hospitality-based establishments that are at least 50 years old. This young but rugged state serves up a feast of history and exploring it through recipes you can make in your own kitchen, not only lets history come alive, it lets you feel part of it. It is a unique concept that allows the present to honor and enjoy the past in a very personal way. Tastes and Treasures presents an historic vignette on thirteen establishments ranging from trading posts, inns, hotels, restaurants, resorts and even a brewing company; each with their own menus, and recipes for all items listed in their respective menus. The establishments come from all regions of Arizona and showcase a variety of cuisine. Each of the recipes has been tested by members of the Historical League, and presented in an easy-to-read format. The beautiful photos and presentation of the book make it something anyone interested in food or history would love to have as a coffee table but extremely useful book, to add to their library. HistoricalLeague.org --Southwest Blend Online Magazine June 2008

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Product details

Hardcover: 208 pages

Publisher: The Cookbook Marketplace; First Edition edition (January 15, 2007)

Language: English

ISBN-10: 9780976836308

ISBN-13: 978-0976836308

ASIN: 0976836300

Product Dimensions:

8.3 x 0.8 x 9 inches

Shipping Weight: 1.6 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)

Average Customer Review:

4.9 out of 5 stars

17 customer reviews

Amazon Best Sellers Rank:

#625,586 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

This is a great little treasure of a book. The history of the various sites is on the page before the recipes, and it is delightful to see the different cooking styles of the chefs and the passion of the folks who have restored and maintained historic places so that we can continue to enjoy them.

I bought this for my wife and after looking it over she loves it. Apparently a new edition is coming-out but the information within this ones excellent.

Bought this book after visiting Sedona in Arizona. Uniquely nice recipes and good photos with some history. Loved the Ricotta pancakes.

I've just returned from vacation in Arizona. I sampled a "taste" of this cookbook while visiting Karchner Caverns Gift Shop, and knew I had to have my own copy. Inside there are interesting stories about the various historic hotels and restarurants that feature recipe selections from their menu. there are also recipes from folks who have lived in Arizona, including Barry Goldwater, that met with rave reviews from patrons or family members. I tried a salmon recipe that was excellent, and plan on trying a good many more. The stories attached to each recipe(s) are also gems in their own right.

Purchased this as a gift for Christmas. It was very well received. The recipes are perfect for my recipent who is on a "Southwest Only" cooking spree for 2012, and the full colored photos within the book are absolutley beautiful. Very pleased with this purchased for quality, relevance and as a gift!

I can't review the content of this book, as I didn't read it. It was a birthday gift for my grandmother. She loved it! Thank you for making her happy!

Tastes & Treasures: A Storytelling Cookbook of Historic ArizonaI have yet to be disappointed with the recipes I've tried. My favorites include John Wayne Eggs page 194, Roasted Portobello Mushrooms page 108, and Tortilla Soup page 141, an Erma Bombeck recipe.Two Fred Harvey original recipes are featured. My great aunt worked at the El Tovar at the Grand Canyon as a Harvey Girl in the early 20th century. I wonder if she ever served these dishes to visitors.Tastes & Treasures is more than a cookbook. It also offers fascinating information about many of Arizona's great historic hotels and restaurants.It's a pleasure to cook from and a pleasure to read.

This is a utterly fantastic cookbook. The recipes go from simple and prepared in a few minutes, to those more complicated but still doable, and all with great results. I use it regularly, to make meals for my family or to make special dishes for gatherings. I've always gotten compliments on anything I make from this cookbook. The most unique part about it is its connection to the history of Arizona, whether from a renown restaurant or from a Historymaker. I have shared the recipes with friends and family.

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Rabu, 16 Maret 2011

Download , by Kel Carpenter Carrie Whitethorne

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, by Kel Carpenter Carrie Whitethorne

, by Kel Carpenter Carrie Whitethorne


, by Kel Carpenter Carrie Whitethorne


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, by Kel Carpenter Carrie Whitethorne

Product details

File Size: 2760 KB

Print Length: 134 pages

Publication Date: January 21, 2018

Sold by: Amazon Digital Services LLC

Language: English

ASIN: B0797CN22V

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Amazon Best Sellers Rank:

#227,911 Paid in Kindle Store (See Top 100 Paid in Kindle Store)

Still going strong . Now we are getting somewhere . I have just met some of the new members of the group that I'am rooting for and I hope they kick butt. I really hope this author keeps going this as she has been. My attention did give a little bit but I came back on track near the end .Trial by Heist is a full-length novella set in between Heir of Shadows and Scion of Midnight. This book is told from Johanna’s perspective.The Mother will guide you. The dragon will call.I used to believe that. I used to believe a lot of things.My name is Johanna Kozak, and I have spent over a decade living in the shadows of our very dark world. I thought if I ran fast enough, I’d outrun my past. Until my best friend was murdered by the same person who killed my parents, and I was the one framed for it.Now the Supernatural Council hold me prisoner, and if there’s one thing I know—it’s that being a half-breed in a Supernatural world is a death sentence unto itself. The Council Member who locked me up plans to execute me, but little does she know… she’s not the only one with friends in high places—and mine are planning a prison break.Books in the Daizlei Academy Series:Heir of Shadows (Book 1)Trial by Heist (Book 1.5)Scion of Midnight (Book 2)

The beginning of a new series by Kel Carpente. Well written with an interesting plot the author has shown creative imagination in this well crafted story line. An entertaining read it is full of twists, suspense, stealth and danger. There are very good detailed and vivid descriptions of scenes, the well defined cast of characters and the strong heroine. Who can she trust? Will she find loyal supporters? The novella focuses on character and relationship development. A good entertaining and captivating. read.

Title: Trial By HeistAuthor: Kel CarpenterGenre: Adult, ParanormalFormat: Ebook - ARCPages: 122Rating: 4Heat: 2Thoughts: This takes place in what seems to be the secret paranormal world that we didn’t know anything about from the first book. It’s a nice peek into this new world. There are some interesting things happening that I can’t wait to see how they involve Selena. So looking forward to book two!!Please note that I received a complimentary copy of this work in exchange for an honest review.

One of the best new authors and new series I have come across in years! I loved this book, and can not wait for the follow ups. The characters were well fleshed out but with great twists and mysteries that I was dying to be revealed. You must give it a try - second book coming soon!!

This book gave you the inside scoop on the council and the politics of the different species in the series. It helps you to better understand what I'm sure Selena is about to go through with all the politics. Plus there is a little Snead bit that you learn about Blair that may help you understand the reason she is the way that she is. Good book for bonus content.

I enjoyed this book as it appears to be the start of an extremely good series of books. Well written with a good plot and cast of characters. I really like the way the writer establishes the characters while not leaving out the plot and suspense.

Stealth and intrigue fill this alternate world with danger. Joanna has so many enemies on every side, but has found loyal friends she can depend on. This is a paranormal action thriller.

Great novella! Definitely read right after book 1 of Daizlei Academy or you will be lost. It will also set you up for book 2.

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Free PDF The Gospel of Thomas Fully Interpreted: The Truth Will Set You Free

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The Gospel of Thomas Fully Interpreted: The Truth Will Set You Free

The Gospel of Thomas Fully Interpreted: The Truth Will Set You Free


The Gospel of Thomas Fully Interpreted: The Truth Will Set You Free


Free PDF The Gospel of Thomas Fully Interpreted: The Truth Will Set You Free

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The Gospel of Thomas Fully Interpreted: The Truth Will Set You Free

Product details

Paperback: 188 pages

Publisher: CreateSpace Independent Publishing Platform (May 11, 2012)

Language: English

ISBN-10: 1475223382

ISBN-13: 978-1475223385

Product Dimensions:

6 x 0.4 x 9 inches

Shipping Weight: 12.2 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)

Average Customer Review:

4.8 out of 5 stars

32 customer reviews

Amazon Best Sellers Rank:

#57,201 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

Now I see why his gospel wasn't included, it's because it's more of a collection of favorite quotes from Yeshua written down by his disciple Thomas, 115 verses. Most of them turns out, are found in the New Testament. When the 12 disciples decided to start writing their experience when Yeshua was present or after he ascended? It's known that some of them read the others rough drafts for reference to jump start theirs. It's possible the first four books of the New Testament authors saw Thomas's writing which was a rough draft as well? and some of them copied some of what he wrote and revised it in their style. Appears Thomas who had compiled this 115 verses (Logion), gave up revising his version to make it more of a journal after he himself saw what the other four disciples wrote down? We can only assume he didn't want to revise or go any further which would have ended up being another version of Mark's. Despite of what the others have written, Thomas's rough draft which he probably intended to revise never surfaced, who's to say he didn't die and didn't finish his final draft and why we're left with what they found? Unfortunately it was rejected. In conclusion this book I have to concur with the other reviewers is indeed a must read. Because the translation of the logion (verses) were awesome. It gives you an understanding what Yeshua was really talking about the whole time; the "Secret" that many bible readers today still don't know or will never understand. You'll read the New Testament in a completely new way after reading this book. Highly recommend this book.

Add this book of thought together with the other bible books and books on God's grace and love to start to get your own hearts picture of who you are in Christ. I recommend it as a companion to other spiritual books.

If you enjoy the Gospel of Thomas, this book will help you understand it in a more meaningful and deeper way. If want to more about the Kingdom of God and spiritual things this book will be a benefit to you.

This book is good for me.It gave me easy and vivid explanation of the doctrine I already got accustomed to with some different perspective.I have broadened my understanding on what Jesus tries to convey with this book.

This book takes each logia of the Gospel of Thomas, explaining it sometimes sentence by sentence, word by word in a concise and insightful manner. I found the interpretation to be like a light switch being flipped on. It kept my undivided attention and my interest piqued until the end. While this interpretation is a bit of a departure from mainstream Christianity, it explains much more to me than the Gospel of Thomas, shedding light on canonical texts as well. I highly recommend!

Jesus said he spoke in Parables so the spiritually blind would not destroy his message just as the old testament spoke in parables, that is how scriptures from the bible have lasted the test of time, because if the people with greed and power in there hearts new the real message, even the bible would have been destroyed. The true meaning of all scripture has been hidden; because it has been interpreted literally, when all scripture is a parable for spiritual things with a deeper hidden meaning. William interprets the gospel line by line for the true meaning, not just a general conversation of the text.This Author is truly blessed and wants to share his knowledge with anyone. At his web site; which is the same as the full title of this book, his life story called (My Enlightenment) is quite inspiring and many other writings as well. His true interpretations of the parables will open your heart and mind like know one could ever do. I have spoken to William in emails and he is a wonderful person who is responsive and kind. This book is a quick read, but you will keep coming back for depth. He speaks to thousands of people, receives mail from all over the world and helps many people with their troubles on their heart. He has helped me in my faith quest and opened my heart to focus on the only thing that Jesus ever said was important, LOVE. Love in all its form is the way back home.UPDATE*** 8/2/2015Since the time I first discovered this book I have studied its sayings everyday like one on a mission. I began walking in Jesus footsteps through this book and Jesus words in the New Testament and I contacted Mr. Hodgetts through his website; which he welcomes with open arms. It has been over 2 years now corresponding with William through many emails as he has guided me to my spiritual freedom and understanding of the TRUTH.I have awakened and become Self-Realized as a spiritual being, I know the Truth and the Truth has set me free. I know without a doubt that I am NOT a physical human being, for I have broken the illusion, the body is a vessel that we control, by our consciousness. The kingdom of Heaven is all around you, because you are a spiritual being existing in the spirit world while controlling a human body remotely in the spirit world with your mind. The real you has never set foot in the physical world, it is all a powerful illusion. The human body is a bio-mechanical machine that you control. Ask yourself, when you close your eyes and picture something in your mind, how can you see those images, if your eyes are closed, unless you are seeing those images with your real spiritual eyes? Or you can plug your ears and hear your own thoughts, how is it you can HEAR your thoughts, unless it is your real spiritual voice in the spiritual realm? What we see before our eyes is a recreation of what the bodies eyes record like cameras and transmit to us in the spirit realm. What you see is like a 180 degree peripheral video screen before your real eyes and all the senses are sent as a signal through the brain waves to us to experience this life. We think we can touch things, but it is the sense of touch that is transmitted to us like virtual reality. When the body dies, the screen before your perception will disappear and you will see where you really are in the spiritual realm. We are here to come to know ourselves as a spiritual being and to make Love and each other more important than things or our own physical lives; which will end eventually, the spirit is eternal, the body is mortal. Jesus wanted to teach people to "Know Thy Self"as a spiritual being and to become Love as he did, as it is written in: (John 3:5 KJV I say unto thee, Except a man be born of water and of the Spirit, he cannot enter into the kingdom of God). Water is a metaphor for the nature of a spiritual being, consciousness and awareness, for awareness flows like water and surrounds our existence, the intangible. The spirit is a metaphor for what we truly are, spirits of Love. For awareness is relation and relation is Love and with love one experiences life through consciousness and consciousness is created by Truth and the one relating to Truth is the Self, the true spiritual identity of each of us. Know your spiritual Self and you will know the Truth and the Truth will set you free.God is our Father, we are gods in the making as it is written: (Psalms 82:6 KJV, I have said, Ye are gods; and all of you are children of the most High. 7 But ye shall die like men, and fall like one of the princes. And this passage was spoken of by Jesus: (John 10:34 KJV, Jesus answered them, Is it not written in your law, I said, Ye are gods? 35 If he called them gods, unto whom the word of God came, and the scripture cannot be broken; 36 Say ye of him, whom the Father hath sanctified, and sent into the world, Thou blasphemest; because I said, I am the Son of God? Jesus became Love and became one with our Father in heaven, it is our destiny also. There is more than just this one life. The spirit is immortal, one can be connected to another human body for another life journey if they have not reached their evolution as a spiritual being of love.The Truth that sets us free, is that we are immortal spiritual beings and , race, religion, color, sex are all illusions and part of the game of life, this is a spiritual school to become a god, not to rule as a supreme being, for we are ALL sentient spiritual beings, but to become as our Father, a being of absolute Unconditional Love and the only world one must rule is the world inside our minds, to make it as our Fathers mind, one fillef with only Love, Truth, Peace and Order, to create our own Heaven, for Heaven is a state of mind and sharing that state of mind with another spiritual being is the fulfillment of Love.. The only thing our Father in heaven wants us to believe in, is ourselves enough to come to know that we are spiritual beings and not human beings, so that we will awaken our our true selves, to let go of the dependency of acceptance and admiration of the opinions of others and become a free spirit, so that we can stand on our own two feet and rule the kingdom he gave each of us; which is our hearts and minds, not to bow down on our knees and worship him, true worship is Love, love each other and one is worshiping our Father in heaven. The only thing that our Father in heaven wants us to have Faith in, is Love, for God is Love and so are we. As it is written in John 1: Beloved, let us love one another: for love is of God; and every one that loveth is born of God, and knoweth God. 8He that loveth not knoweth not God; for God is love.) Have faith in love and be true to ourselves as beings of love.God is Love and love does not punish, but forgives and understands and waits patiently for our return home, without expectations of faith in anyone else, for God has no conditions for his Love, for Love is Unconditional. There is no Hell, hell is a metaphor, for the torment of the mind when one has to face ones self and our wrongs to clean out our heart and soul. The Devil is not real, it is a metaphor for one who has rejected all love in their heart and replaced it with evil. Forgiveness is not dependent on believing in a person or a name, it is dependent on realizing ones wrongs and finding the wisdom to let the things that hurt others and ones soul go. We are forgiven as we forgive others. We are forgiven already, regardless of our faith in God or Jesus, just as a parent loves and forgives their children and waits patiently for their children to grow up and stop hurting others and their selves. Life is short, the meaning of life is Love. Love yourself and have faith in yourself to become all that you can be in spirit and love, then you will have the strength and happiness to love others as God loves all his children. You are all my family, peace be with you, come to know your self as a spiritual being, and live life through only LOVE= Empathy, Compassion, Understanding, Forgiveness, Kindness, Sharing, Giving, Sacrificing, Humility, Sincerity, Consistency,Consideration, Honesty, Harmony, Peace, Balance and Unity. Then our Father will come and take us home to our True birth place, Heaven.This book is the True Gospel of the Kingdom, it is no wonder it was rejected, for it reveals the authorities of scripture painted a picture of a false image of God our Father, one who is Jealous, vain, vengeful and one to fear a punishment of burning in Hell if we don't submit our freedom and will to conform to a religion, one that exhalts the teachers and makes them rich and powerful. None of this is Love, it is greed, evil and hate.God is Love, Love is not jealous, love is not vain, love is not vengeful, love does not punish, but forgives, and empowers you to be all that you can be, love does not create fear, but comforts and gives kindness and compassion, love would never create a hell or torture you, Love is happiness, love is humble, not prideful like many false teachers of religion, love does not need money or power, all of the things of the false image of god are made by men to control mankind, not to free us. God does not want us to save this world, God wants us to save the world within our minds, through filling it with Love and Truth and discarding all that opposes love. The world is the way it is because of the hearts and minds=Souls of humanity. Change the world within and the light will shine on the world outside of ones soul to shed light on the way the world outside of us could be, one in the true image of God, Unconditional Love.This book has set me free, I do not fear the death of the body, and neither should you, for death is an illusion. The true death is one who has secummed to the worlds pleasures and set down their destiny to come to know themselves as spiritual beings. Jesus called those who were ready to come with him and follow his teachings to come to know themselves and let those who are not ready remain dead in spirit, as it is written: (Mathew 8:22 KJV But Jesus said unto him, Follow me; and let the dead bury their dead.) If you are living an illusion, are you truly living?This gospel changed my life in unimaginable ways, I have experienced things I can't explain that have expanded my consciousness and awareness beyond your imagination. I see life in a way no one can relate to around me and I have found peace and happiness where it cannot be taken from me, from within my soul. Every time I read it, I find new depth to it and William continues to teach me the path to home. The spirit humbly and quietly speaks through the words of the gospels waiting for us all to come home and let go of our egos that loudly proclaim that the pleasures of life and the security of our human bodies is more important than finding the meaning of our existence.One day we will all know the Truth of our divine spiritual nature and we will all be free from fear, conformity, inequality, judgment, selfishness, expectations, jealousy, revenge, pride, competition, dishonesty, violence, hate and evil, as we take our place in fufilling our destiny and our right to a higher state of being in love and peace. Until then, God waits for us all to turn to Love and make it our own cross that we bare to live life by.Love and Peace be with you all

People go to college or even "Bible School" in order to receive degrees and become certified teachers of the scriptures. What these people do is become familiar with doctrine, and they study the Bible as a textbook. However, the gospel is meant to be understood by the poor in spirit, and it written that Jesus thanked God for revealing the Kingdom secrets to "babes and infants" and hiding them from those who were haughty in their knowledge.Long story short, I have seen and read the so called "experts" opinions and ideas as they try to understand the Gospel of Thomas, and the truth has been hidden from them. There is only one true interpretation of this Gospel, and I can tell you in truth that this is it. The writer of this is truly enlightened, and the truth is right here if you want it, and if you are willing to put in the time needed to gather the true riches. If you have arrived here looking for the true interpretation, then consider yourself blessed.

Great learning experience.

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Kamis, 24 Februari 2011

Free Download Language Isolates (Routledge Language Family Series)

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About the Author

Lyle Campbell is a linguist, Professor Emeritus at the University of Hawai‘i Mānoa. He has also held joint appointments in Anthropology, Latin American Studies, Linguistics, and Spanish.

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Product details

Series: Routledge Language Family Series

Hardcover: 392 pages

Publisher: Routledge; 1 edition (September 19, 2017)

Language: English

ISBN-10: 1138821055

ISBN-13: 978-1138821057

Product Dimensions:

6.5 x 1 x 9.2 inches

Shipping Weight: 1.7 pounds (View shipping rates and policies)

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Jumat, 11 Februari 2011

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Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game

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Audible Audiobook

Listening Length: 10 hours and 26 minutes

Program Type: Audiobook

Version: Unabridged

Publisher: Random House Audio

Audible.com Release Date: July 26, 2011

Language: English, English

ASIN: B005FFRQYS

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Read this book only if you are prepared to realize that much of what you thought you knew about baseball is nonsense. This book is an amazing eye-opener about a then radical new way of managing a pro baseball team that allowed the dirt-poor Oakland A's to win as many games as the fat-cat NY Yankees. Using detailed statistical analysis created by baseball fans like Bill James who wanted to know how to make better teams in their fantasy baseball leagues, Oakland GM Billy Beane drafted or traded for players other teams considered sub-standard or worn-out and Oakland became a post-season threat despite having the second lowest payroll in the major leagues. Although the baseball establishment reacted with horror and contempt to having its time-honored methods of choosing players challenged, the approach used in Moneyball has been widely adopted by many teams including the Boston Red Sox who won the World Series shortly after doing so. Since reading this book I laugh every time I hear an announcer use the phrase, "productive out", knowing that over the long haul it's teams that don't trade outs for bases that win more games. The Moneyball approach remains controversial with many fans and baseball industry insiders--it's more fun to watch someone bunt a runner to second than it is to watch that hitter draw a walk--but the numbers show that over time the walks are more valuable to a team. Regardless of how much you agree with Bill James and Billy Beane, this is a terrific book that will make you really think about how the game of baseball works.

Terrific read. For some reason, I didn't read it until 2016. It has a different perspective now after 13 years. We have already seen the affects of Moneyball and Sabermetrics on baseball. Theo Epstein seems to be the greatest beneficiary of the theory, the man who used sabermetrics and had a budget to spend. Two World Series victories, one for the Red Sox and another for the Cubs after many decades of losing. The Cubs didn't win the World Series in 2016; Theo Epstein was the winner. I liked reading Moneyball to follow the theories and careers of those who were the big players in the book. The afterward by Lewis gives a lot of insight into the reaction of baseball's old boy network, the old guard who rejected change.

Very interesting book that flies by. It is so easy to read that you can almost pardon's Michael Lewis' penchant for perpetuating the hyperbole of others and contributing exaggeration of his own. You can easily see how the added flair and drama makes the book more interesting for a mass audience. You can also excuse the fact that the book doesn't actually point out the answer to the original question. Why were the Oakland A's able to win so many games on a small budget? It turns out that was a little bit of skill but mostly luck. They got lucky with their pre-moneyball pitchers Zito, Mulder and Hudson.Despite the fact that Lewis doesn't highlight this anti-climactic conclusion on his own, the book still has enough information for the reader to get there. It is ironic that this parallels the reason Bill James' departed from Baseball Abstract and that is mentioned in the book. There is too much focus on the details that don't matter. The high level narrative and explanation are more important. Budget matters. You can get a slight advantage by exploiting inefficiencies but this takes a long time to prove out due to limited data points the out-sized impact luck has. There are lots of little nuggets of information like that hiding in this book that make it worth reading.

I decided to read this book after I got a nagging feeling that I am the only statistician in the US who hasn't read it. This review is aimed at those who are interested in quantitative performance evaluation or quantitative modeling in general.First, I'd like to thank Lewis for a book that is worth reading even for someone who has never learned the rules of the game and never will. Even if I had had a glimmer of interest in baseball per se before I read the book, it would have been extinguished for good anyway (read on to learn why).According to Lewis, for about a hundred years American baseball existed as a peculiar social club composed of GMs, scouts, baseball writers and commentators, and players who would often become one of the former. The first reason why The Club was special was that it was rarely run as a business. Consider Walter Haas, a former owner of Oakland Athletics. Haas was a great-grandnephew of Levi Strauss and coincidentally served as CEO of Levi Strauss & Co for almost 20 years. He was not shy of giving it back to the American society or at least to the most indispensable part of it, professional baseball players. As a result, in 1991 Oakland A's enjoyed the highest payroll in baseball while losing money for the owner. Unfortunately, that commendable manifestation of social responsibility was halted in 1995 when the new owners switched to a pro-business stance and slashed the payroll drastically.The new goal for the GM became to keep the team in the major league, while minimizing the ratio of payroll to the number of wins. The quest for how to run the most cost-effective team resulted in a number of fascinating discoveries. First, consider the process of drafting young players from high schools and colleges. The old scouts were used to some glaringly subjective player selection criteria, such as how cool the player's body looks ("selling jeans") or how concordant his facial features are with a great future in baseball ("The Good Face"). The "internal compass of an old baseball guy", directed them to look at the player and "imagine what he might become". They believed that they could judge and predict the player's performance simply by watching him. To be fair, the old school scouting worked fine but only assuming that the team's pockets were very deep. Indeed, that was often the case thanks to Walter Haas and other individuals who possessed similar amounts of wealth and social responsibility.Of course, different stats (foot speed, batting average, etc) were also considered, but none of the old guard had the desire, ability or means to assess how predictable such metrics are given the current information about the player. For instance, do young power hitters tend to develop precision over time or not? Are the stats of a high school player informative enough or does it make sense to ignore them and focus on the college players who have a longer history? Are there metrics that confuse skill and luck and contain no useful information even about the past performance, let alone the future?Further, suppose the future values of a measurable characteristic (e.g. foot speed, fastball velocity) can be predicted well, and we are fairly certain that luck and skill are not mixed up. So far so good, but exactly how much does that particular skill contribute to the ultimate objective, winning a game at the lowest cost? Say, if the future foot speed of the player is guaranteed to be as good as it has been, how much the team should be willing to pay for the player? If the answer is known, the GM can then perform some arbitrage by selling players whose characteristics are overpriced and buying those whose characteristics are underpriced.It may appear strange that those questions were not raised and addressed until after Billy Beane became the GM of Oakland Athletics in 1997. Apart from the philanthropic attitude of the team owners, there were other reasons why. Before the late 1970s, quantitative analysis of baseball data was both hard for the lack of computers and impractical because the players' salaries were not that high. Most importantly, the eventual adoption of quantitative performance evaluation methods revealed that the baseball data are extremely noisy. To extract some useful insights, one has to generalize from a large body of stats that no living scout or other baseball insider can keep in his head. Likewise, to see whether a given quantitative approach does (not) work, it's not enough to follow the career of a single player or observe the outcome of a single game.That nourished the perception that quantitative metrics are more or less useless and recoursing to one's "internal compass" works better when it's time to draft players and then decide how (not) to use them during the game. An example of such attitude is the scouts' belief that "if you see it once, it's there", which is a ringing endorsement of making a decision based on the sample size of one. Given how much the outcome of anything that happens on the field depends on luck, that's a kiss of death for good scouting, or at least for a cost-effective version of it.Undoubtedly, baseball teams vary in skill, but, according to the book, the contribution of skill to the outcome of an average game is about four times less than the contribution of luck. In particular, the number of games in playoffs is so small that luck doesn't cancel out: in a series of five games, the worst team in the major league has a 15% chance to beat the best team. Because a team that loses in the playoffs cannot get the coveted World Series title it creates another psychological incentive for having little faith in the quantitative approach. To me it also means that if all of the noise were to disappear (and that's what "sabermetrics" is trying to achieve), the game would become far less fun to watch and talk about. There is not much thrill in observing how a slightly biased coin is flipped. Isn't that another reason why both the insiders and fans preferred to stick to the old ways instead of embracing the "performance scouting" and other insights offered by sabermetrics? If that's the case then The Club turns out to be far more rational and efficient than Lewis portrayed.Next, I'd like to explore the most important point made by Lewis: bad as they may have been, the baseball statistics were probably far more accurate than anything used to measure the performance of people in many other lines of work, so ...? What immediately comes to my mind are the "scouting" (hiring) practices of Microsoft and Google that included the so-called brainteaser interviews that were administered for 10 to 20 years (see Are You Smart Enough to Work at Google? and How Would You Move Mount Fuji?). To me it has always been clear that being good at brainteasers does not predict one's future job performance unless the job amounts to solving brainteasers. Both companies banned the practice in the end, even though some copycats are still lurking around. The point, however, is why it lasted for as long as it did. Apparently, the engineers at Microsoft and Google are no fools. They figured out that the brainteasers fail at achieving their purported objective many years ago. Why continue to use them, then? Moneyball provides a plausible explanation. Companies are not only about doing business but sometimes about being a certain social club. The club entry requirements can be as arbitrary as anything. If they appear, to put it mildly, irrational, that is to be expected every now and then. Therefore, the real question is not "Are you smart enough to work at Google?" but "Are you a good fit for the Google social club?". Regardless of what the answer is, it has nothing to do with one's intelligence or the absence thereof.Now back to baseball. If you have some quantitative background I could highly recommend "Stein's Paradox in Statistics", a paper published by Prof. Efron in 1977 (incidentally, that was the year Bill James published his first Baseball Abstract). The rather ancient article is quite in line with what I learned from Moneyball: the amount of noise in the baseball stats is substantial and the players are a lot more similar to each other than it appears to the public and even the insiders. It looks like my background in Statistics, combined with what I learned from the book, made it impossible to enjoy the game the way millions of fans do. Nevertheless, I managed to derive a lot of value from Moneyball and I wish you the same.

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Minggu, 23 Januari 2011

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Product details

Paperback: 62 pages

Publisher: Bazaar Encounters, LLC (March 17, 2017)

Language: English

ISBN-10: 0998844705

ISBN-13: 978-0998844701

Product Dimensions:

8.5 x 0.1 x 11 inches

Shipping Weight: 7.7 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)

Average Customer Review:

4.8 out of 5 stars

8 customer reviews

Amazon Best Sellers Rank:

#120,422 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

Oh. My. Goodness. This coloring book is amazing! My little girl loves it and will and color in it for almost an hour, which for a 5 year old kid is like FOREVER! She is thrilled every time she tuns the page and there is a new kind of unicorn - Mermaidcorns, Racconcorns, Pandacorns, etc. It's fun and engaging for her. Just be warned, if your kid wants to color a page for Grandma, make sure it's not one of the unicorn farting pages (heehee), or that Grandma is THAT kind of grandma and won't be offended.

My niece loves it

Cute. My daughter loved it!

My 8 year old niece loved this coloring book. Highly recommend!

My daughter love it!

OMG! I love this book. Bought it for my daughter but now I'm kind of jealous and want one too. :)

Unicorns are in!!

Good children's book

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Rabu, 19 Januari 2011

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North Cascades Highway, by JoAnn Roe

About the Author

JoAnn Roe is a prolific and entertaining writer of popular history and, for national and international magazines, of articles on diverse topics including travel. She is the recipient of the Pacific Northwest Booksellers Award and Governor's Award.

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Product details

Paperback: 184 pages

Publisher: Montevista Press; Reissue edition (June 1, 2004)

Language: English

ISBN-10: 093155120X

ISBN-13: 978-0931551208

Product Dimensions:

5.2 x 0.8 x 8.2 inches

Shipping Weight: 8.8 ounces (View shipping rates and policies)

Average Customer Review:

4.1 out of 5 stars

2 customer reviews

Amazon Best Sellers Rank:

#3,412,758 in Books (See Top 100 in Books)

What a great little book! JoAnn Roe has done a great job of compiling and presenting the history and stories of this great corner of WA.

Had high hopes for this book, as I enjoyed the authors book about Stephens Pass. This book seemed rather disconnected.

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North Cascades Highway, by JoAnn Roe PDF